Meet the Election Denier Forecasting the 2024 Race

Election forecasters are finding it challenging to predict the outcome of this year's presidential race, with states like Nevada and Pennsylvania remaining unpredictable. However, a different perspective is offered by a Trump supporter, who bases his predictions on widespread election fraud, favoring former President Donald J. Trump. This approach is controversial as officials deny such fraud has occurred in modern elections.

The forecaster has gained popularity among election deniers, embarking on a speaking tour and receiving praise from Trump. In Pennsylvania, he believes Trump will prevail, citing unpassed election laws that could potentially favor Vice President Kamala Harris. Conversely, he predicts a Trump loss in Michigan due to Democratic control potentially facilitating fraud.

Despite the widespread dismissal of voter fraud claims, these theories persist among election denial circles, promoting narratives of mail-in voting and ballot harvesting conspiracies. The forecaster's assessments, centered on debunked fraud theories, paint a more Trump-favoring picture than other polling averages, with predictions showing Trump leading in swing states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, but presenting Georgia and Michigan as tossups.

Contrasting the forecaster's predictions, standard polling averages suggest a tighter race, with the Vice President slightly leading in several critical states. The debate continues over the effectiveness and accuracy of predictions founded on contested fraud claims versus traditional polling methods.